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Posted on 4/10/2022 by admin

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Pando

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In reading various blogs, reference is made to the Wiesbaden Casino live spins data which are available on the web.
They number 3,000,000 and according to information I have read, the maximum number of consecutive spins that
missed hitting a particular dozen is 15.
Today I have been playing at DublinBet, single zero roulette with a live dealer, and he has just spun 20 consecutive
spins without hitting a tier number (numbers 27 to 33 on the wheel). The tier numbers are a 'dozen' but not as
they are arranged on the felt, but as they are on the wheel.
My question is, are the odds of the tier dozen being hit (or not) the same as the 1 to 12, 13 to 24 and 25 to 36 dozens.
I have noticed at my local casino very long runs where the dealer spins the same area of the wheel for 10 or more
spins with monotonous (and profitable) regularity even though the wheel spins both ways.

MathExtremist

Yes. Barring some bias, the chance of hitting one number is equal to the chance of any other, so the chances of hitting one in a combination of any 12 numbers are also equal.
However, if you can detect and profit from some bias in the game, go for it.

'In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice.' -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563

estebanrey

Then I would seriously consider questioning that fact.
According to my calculations, spinning 16 times in a row without hitting one particular dozen bet should roughly happen once every 657 attempts (not 657 spins but 657 attempts at spinning 16 times in a row without hitting one specific dozen).
I've just ran off a list of 100,000 spins from Random.Org and got maximum losing streaks of 32, 25, and 33 for the 1st, 2nd and 3rd 12's respectively.
EDIT: JUST NOTICED MY FIGURES AND TESTING ABOVE WERE BASED ON A NO ZERO ROULETTE WHEEL (1-36 ONLY AS I PLAY BETFAIR'S ONE), WHICH MAKES THE CLAIM OF 15 BEING THE MAXIMUM EVEN MORE SILLY ON EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN ROULETTE WHEELS (SHOULD HAVE A RUN OF 16 LOSSES ABOUT ONCE EVERY 530 ATTEMPTS ON A SINGLE ZERO WHEEL AND ONCE IN 433 ATTEMPTS ON A DOUBLE ZERO WHEEL).

Pando

Thankyou Estebanrey - maybe I will try and find the source of the data

JB
Administrator

the maximum number of consecutive spins that missed hitting a particular dozen is 15.

For a single-zero wheel, the odds of this happening are 1 in 358.

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For a double-zero wheel, the odds of this happening are 1 in 297.
Point

Quote: Pando

Today I have been playing at DublinBet, single zero roulette with a live dealer, and he has just spun 20 consecutive
spins without hitting a tier number (numbers 27 to 33 on the wheel). The tier numbers are a 'dozen' but not as
they are arranged on the felt, but as they are on the wheel.

The odds of this happening are 1 in 2542. This is far from astronomical; the odds of hitting a royal flush in video poker are about 1 in 40,000 yet royal flushes are hit every day.

My question is, are the odds of the tier dozen being hit (or not) the same as the 1 to 12, 13 to 24 and 25 to 36 dozens.

Yes.

Pando

Thankyou JB

FleaStiff

were based on a no zero wheel (Betfair's)...

If there is no green then how can there be a house edge? Red and Black bets would have a probability of 50:50 and an even payout. Where is the house edge?
What is the payout on a straight up number bet if there is no zero on the wheel?

WongBo

Predicted answer: a withdraw fee..

estebanrey

Quote: WongBo

Predicted answer: a withdraw fee..

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Betfair have something called a 'Zero Lounge', games with zero house edge. They have Roulette, Baccarat, Black Jack and Video Poker.

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There is NO withdraw fee either. I guess they exist as loss leaders, hoping people will move on to their other games with an edge because the stakes are severely limited in the zero lounge. On roulette for example the maximum total stake you can put on any one spin is £20, compare that to their regular European Roulette game that has a limit of £10k a spin. Zero Baccarat is a bit better as you can bet up to £200 a hand and I've made quite a bit of cash from that game.
Here's what zero roulette looks like...

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGCh4JgLQ5Q
Ignore the table limits, he is playing in free mode which has higher limits, real money is more limited. Oh and money staked in the Zero Lounge doesn't count towards any bonus requirements either. You can use bonus money to play there but it doesn't count towards your play through number.

Pokeraddict

Off topic but since they were mentioned and why they offer the games, Betfair only offers these games because they have a history of cheating players and not paying them. Playing there because they offer a zero house edge game sounds great until they run their next scam. Google 'Betfair Happy Hour' for an example of how this group behaves. They stole millions from players and even went into player's personal accounts (reported to be ewallets and bank accounts) and regulated sports accounts to take their money back that players won fair and square on a promotion that was heavily advertised and where T&Cs were not broken. Their casino regulator in Malta (LGA) did absolutely nothing. The LGA has since been exposed as being worthless since so if you ever have a casino complaint at Betfair then you are on your own.
Then you have retroactive 'premium fees', a $3 million slow pay (or maybe even non payment). Then if they think that you are just friends with someone who has a past of being forced to pay premium fees they just take the money from you. Google 'Betfair premium fees' for endless stories about that nonsense. Google 'Betfair $3 million slow pay' for the other story.
When you play at gaming sites that have a history of theft then you are condoning the behavior, even if they have not screwed you (yet).
Sorry for the OT but it seems appropriate to warn players about Betfair's past. They were once one of the most well respected gaming companies in the world but they are not anymore.