Roulette Odds Black In A Row
It all boils down to one basic, misguided belief: In games of chance, like roulette or craps, if a certain outcome hasn’t happened in awhile, it’s more likely to occur in the future. Seriously, black has hit, like, six times in a row. Has to be red next. A Roulette wheel does not look at statistics, nor does it have the ability to determine when a specific result is “due”. Even if the colour black has been hit 300 times in a row, the odds of it hitting red on the next spin are the same as the odds of the Roulette ball landing on the colour black again.
Roulette Mathematics. If you want to excel at roulette, then you really need to understand the maths behind it. True odds are the real world chance of a certain outcome, whereas the house odds are the payout ratio for the same scenario and are typically slightly lower. There is a famous session where a roulette ball on a specific wheel landed on black 26 times in a row in a Monte Carlo Casino in the summer of 1913- August 18 to be precise. This even spawned the name “Monte Carlo Fallacy”. Players at the table lost millions of francs betting against the black. But generally, all the noise is on red, right?
By Ion Saliu, Founder of Roulette Mathematics
This question was posted in mathematical newsgroups (alt.math.recreational, alt.math.undergrad, alt.sci.math.probability): 'Winning and Quitting on Red/Black in Roulette'.
- 'Obviously in roulette betting on in the long run you are going to lose your money but at some point chances are you'll be in profit. To take an extreme example if you had $1000 you could reasonably expect to be up $1 at some point. Is it possible to generalize this? I want to win W dollars at which point I will quit. How much cash C would I need to have probability P of succeeding? Let's say I'm betting on a 37 number roulette wheel (18 red 18 black and one green 0)?'
On the surface, the best probability for the roulette player to be ahead is in one trial (spin): 48.6% to win (versus 51.4% to lose), as far as even-money betting is concerned. I don't agree that it is the best strategy (betting all your bankroll on one spin).
Theoretically, no bankroll will put a player ahead guaranteed, IF flat-betting and playing very long consecutive sessions. There are moments, however, when the roulette player can be ahead by at least one betting unit. Even in even-money bets, the player has a good chance to be ahead by at least one unit after 5, or 10, or even 100 spins. But more than 20 spins are NOT recommended; the probability (odds) to lose go(es) above 50%! Think about it!
The main thing, mathematically, is the number of player's wins in N trials. To be ahead, means the player has won at least one more roulette spin (number of successes) than the number of losses in N trials. The question then becomes:
'What are the probabilities for the player to be ahead in various numbers of trials?'
Everybody can use my probability software SuperFormula, option L: At Least M successes in N trials.
Winning probability: p = 18/37; M must be at least (N/2) + 1.
Here is a number of cases from the player's perspective.
The figures are applicable to all even-money roulette bets: black or red; even or odd; low or high (1-18 or 19-36).
1 trial (spin)
- probability (odds) to win: 48.6%; odds = 1 in 2.05
- probability (odds) to lose: 51.4%; odds = 1 in 1.95
(the probability to lose is 19/37; adding zero to unfavorable cases).
2 trials (spins)
- probability (odds) to win 2 of 2: 23.7% (1 of 2 doesn't mean 'being ahead')
- probability (odds) to lose 1 of 2: 76.3%
3 spins
- probability (odds) to win at least 2 of 3: 48%
- probability (odds) to lose at least 2 of 3: 52%
10 spins
- probability (odds) to win at least 6 of 10: 34.4%; odds = 1 in 2.91
- probability (odds) to lose at least 6 of 10: 41.1%; odds = 1 in 2.43
20 spins
- probability (odds) to win at least 11 of 20: 36.5%
- probability (odds) to lose at least 11 of 20: 46.2%
100 spins
- probability (odds) to win at least 51 of 100: 35.5%; odds = 1 in 2.82
- probability (odds) to lose at least 51 of 100: 56.8%; odds = 1 in 1.76.
It's getting worse for the player...
The roulette strategy (or system) is a totally different ball game! But there are professional gamblers out there, including roulette players! They must have strategies, some roulette systems deduced from some figures like the ones above! The player can be ahead at any point in the game. If so, maybe it's time to move to another (or casino) table: It improves the odds of winning!
Always keep track of the losing and winning streaks. Be strong and put an end to a winning streak. You are ahead, you quit the roulette table. Go to another table and wait until you are ahead. The bankroll is of the essence: It must assure going through long losing streaks. Divide the streaks in 10 spins or 20 spins. Never fight aggressively short or mid-term losing streaks. This is the best approach for those who do not know Ion Saliu's casino gambling systems. A good approach to gambling is the next best thing to a good gambling system! Applicable to blackjack and baccarat, too!
Axiomatic one, everybody knows that the casinos have an edge or house advantage (HA) in all the games they offer, roulette including. The house advantage is created by the payouts in rapport to total possibilities for the respective bet. We can apply this simple formula based on units paid UP over total possibilities TP:
(always expressed as a percentage.)
For example, in single-zero roulette, the one-number (straight-up) bet has payout of 35 to 1. The to qualifier is very important: the casino pays you 35 units and they give you back the unit you bet; thus, you get 36 units. There are 37 possibilities in single-zero roulette: 36 numbers from 1 to 36 plus the 0 number. Therefore, HA = 1 – (UP / TP) = 1 – (36 / 37) = 1 – 0.973 = 0.027 = 2.7%.
Let's calculate HA for the 1 to 1 bets: black/red, even/odd, low/high. HA = 1 – (UP / TP) = 1 – (2 / 2.055) = 1 – 0.973 = 0.027 = 2.7%. There are little differences among bets depending on how many decimal points we work with in our calculations.
The point is, the casinos have an advantage, or the players have a disadvantage. Nonetheless, the players' disadvantage is far better than what they face in state-run lotteries. Yet, most casino gamblers lose big, including at roulette tables. They do not have sufficient bankrolls to withstand long losing streaks.
However, around 45% of the roulette numbers lead the gamblers to profits in a few thousand spins. That is, with a sufficient bankroll, a player has a pretty good chance to make a profit, even if playing a random roulette number, or a favorite number. I analyzed about 8000 roulette spins from Hamburg Spielbank (casino). Quite a few numbers ended up making a profit: roulette systems, magic numbers.
By contrast, the more lottery drawings a player plays, the higher the degree of certainty of a loss. Let's make a comparative analysis to the roulette long series above (spins: total roulette numbers, 37, multiplied by 200). If playing the pick-3 lottery for some 100,000 drawings, it is guaranteed that all pick-3 straight sets will be losers. Some numbers will hit up to 3% to 5% above the norm — but that is not nearly enough to assure a profit. A frequency of 3% to 5% above the norm leads to profits in roulette, however.
Ion Saliu's Paradox and Roulette
Ion Saliu's Paradox of N Trials
is presented in detail at saliu.com, especially the probability theory page and the mathematics of gambling formulaOdds On A Roulette Table
. If p = 1 / N, we can discover an interesting relation between the degree of certainty DC and the number of trials N. The degree of certainty has a limit, when N tends to infinity. That limit isRoulette Black Red Odds
1 — 1/e, or approximately 0.632....If you play 1 roulette number for the next 38 spins, common belief was that you expected to win once. Not! Non! Only if you play 38 numbers in 1 spin, your chance to hit the winning number is 100%. Here is an interesting table, which includes also The Free Roulette System #1 presented at the main roulette site.
The maximum gain comes when playing 38 numbers in one spin: 36.3%. Obviously, it makes no sense to play that way because of the house advantage. On the other hand, a so-called wise gambler is more than happy to play one number at a time. What he does is simply losing slowly! Not only that, but losing slowly is accompanied by losing more. That cautious type of gambling is like a placebo. A roulette system such as Free System #1 scares most gamblers. 'Play 34 or 33 numbers in one shot? I'll have a heart attack!' In reality, the Free Roulette System #1 offers a 28.8% advantage over playing singular numbers in long sessions. That's mathematics, and there is no heart to worry about, axiomatic one.
Roulette Color Odds
You can also use SuperFormula to calculate all kinds of probabilities and advantage percentages. The option L — At least M successes in N trials is a very useful gambling instrument. If you play 19 numbers in one spin, the probability to win is 50%. If you play 19 numbers in 2 consecutive spins, the probability to win at least once is 75%.
Editor's note
• In an apparent change of heart, the Hamburg casino (Spielbank) offers online roulette results for free. The new link is (for the time being!):
www.spielbank-hamburg.de/spielsaal/permanenzen.php4
• • Real-life roulette spins are also available from the Wiesbaden, Germany, Casino (Spielbank)
www.spielbank-wiesbaden.de/DE/621/Permanenzen2.php: Wiesbaden Spielbank Permanenzen
Roulette: Software, Systems, Super Strategy
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How many times in a row has a little ball landed in the same pocket of a Roulette wheel, i.e. how many times has a single number occurred in a row? And how about the same color? What is the probability of these events and a potential impact on a play?
Record Occurrence of a Single Number in Roulette
The probability that any single number occurs is 1/37 in French Roulette and 1/38 in American Roulette (there are 36 numbers + zero + double zero in American Roulette). There is no doubt that it is a great coincidence when the same number comes up again and again.
The longest reliable series was registered at the hotel El San Chuan in Puerto Rico on 9 June 1959. During the course of the American Roulette, number ten occurred even six times in a row! The probability of such (successive) events is determined by a multiplication of individual events. Therefore the probability that the same number comes up six times in a row is:
(1/38) ˟ (1/38) ˟ (1/38) ˟ (1/38) ˟ (1/38) ˟ (1/38), that is:
(1/38)6 = 0.000000000332122593261671.
That is a very small number indeed, roughly three billionths only. If we convert this probability into true odds that would have to be offered to us by a casino, we get the value 3,010,936,384 to one. The true (fair) odds are calculated as a reciprocal of the probability, that is 1 ÷ probability. If such a bet on a series of outcomes was possible in Roulette, we would win $3 billion for a $1 bet(!)
It is important to add that the above-mentioned calculation of probability deals with a multiple (successive) events, i.e. we can ask this question: What is the probability that the same number in Roulette comes up 6 times in a row?
Since it would be a different case if e.g. number 10 occurred and after that before the new spin we asked what was the probability that number ten came up again? In this case the answer would be 1/38 (in terms of American Roulette), because any number could occur with the same probability 1/38 in every new spin. That is what we call a simple event in contrast with a multiple event(s) whereas the probabilities of individual events are multiplied (→ Articles on Probability).
The true odds for a 1 to 10fold repetition of the same number are shown in the table below. It is the same mechanism as if a sporting bet company or a casino offered the odds for a victory of some home team in some football match (→ The Odds Determination and Calculation).
| The Same Number Comes Up in a Row | True Odds to One in FRENCH Roulette | True Odds to One in AMERICAN Roulette |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | 38 | |
2˟ | 1,369 | 1,444 |
| 50,653 | 54,872 | |
4˟ | 1,874,161 | 2,085,136 |
| 69,343,957 | 79,235,168 | |
6˟ | 2,565,726,409 | 3,010,936,384 |
| 94,931,877,133 | 114,415,582,592 | |
8˟ | 3,512,479,453,921 | 4,347,792,138,496 |
| 129,961,739,795,077 | 165,216,101,262,848 | |
10˟ | 4,808,584,372,417,850 | 6,278,211,847,988,230 |
The odds are reciprocal values of the probabilities – the higher they are, the lower the probabilities are. The case of the above-mentioned record series is marked green. Consider also the difference that is made by one extra number in American Roulette (the double zero).
Record Repetition of the Same Color in Roulette
There are no exceptions that the same color appeared more than 20 times in a row in practice. The record was registered in 1943, when red color came up 32 times in a row! The probability of such event in French Roulette is (18/37)32 = 0.000000000096886885 with the corresponding odds 10,321,314,387:1.
The probability of the 32fold repetition of the same color in American Roulette is much more lower: (18/38)32 = 0.00000000004127100756 and the odds are 24,230,084,485:1. Thus this is even less likely than occurrence of a single number six times in a row. Again it is clearly demonstrated what kind of importance (a negative one for players) has just one extra number in American Roulette.
Now imagine that you used the Martingale betting strategy (→ see the first test of the Martingale system), whereas the next bet is doubled if your bet loses...
→ Testing & Simulations of Roulette Bets & Strategies